We go through Michigan football's season using FPI's forecast, and offer our thoughts on the chances the metric gives the Wolverines in each game, as well as the season outlook overall.
Zach Shaw
The Michigan football team kicks off its 2024 season in just 16 days. After a long offseason full of departures, coaching changes, additions and, of course, plenty of national championship celebration, the Wolverines will host Fresno State August 31 in a primetime matchup.
What might the season ahead have in store for Michigan? No one truly knows, but ESPN's Football Power Index algorithm offered its view, as the site published game-by-game win probabilities for the Wolverines. The metric, ambiguous in methodology, is described by ESPN as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."
Below, we go through Michigan's season using FPI's forecast, and offer our thoughts on the chances the metric gives the Wolverines in each game, as well as the season outlook overall.
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Week one: No. 74 Fresno State
Michigan football's chances of winning, per FPI: 89.2 percent
Our take: The Bulldogs have been one of the better group-of-five teams lately, ranking fifth among current group-of-five teams with 58 wins since 2017 and sixth with a .674 winning percentage. Of course, the two head coaches responsible for that —Jeff Tedford, Kalen DeBoer and Tedford again —have moved on, and Tim Skinner was only named head coach a month ago.
Still, Fresno State has a bigger fanbase than a few ACC schools, and returns quarterback Mikey Keene, running back Malik Sherrod and four offensive linemen. If the Bulldogs can improve defensively, they will be a dark-horse team to win the GO5 playoff spot.
Still, Michigan is playing at home for the first time since winning a national championship, and should be eager to get the season underway. Should the Wolverines avoid sleepwalking, this is a highly winnable opening game. A percentage like 89 percent feels apt here.
Week two: No. 3 Texas
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Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 34.9 percent
Our take: With its quarterback, coordinators and head coach back from last season's College Football Playoff run, as well as a surplus of recruiting and transfer portal talent on both sides of the ball, Texas is viewed by FPI as one of the best teams in the country, with an 11.6 percent chance of winning a national championship and the No. 3 overall team. The Longhorns will try to score a massive road win over a Michigan team in transition from last year's run.
Of course, the Wolverines haven't lost a home game with fans in Michigan Stadium since 2019, and feel like they have a defense ready to put Texas on its heels.
Under 35 percent feels low, but it's fair to view Michigan as an underdog in this matchup with so many unproven pieces at this point.
Week three: No. 97 Arkansas State
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 92.3 percent
Our take: The closest thing Michigan has to a gimme game this season, the Wolverines are expected to handle the Red Wolves with relative ease. Michigan may be bruised, injured or both, depending on how its matchup with Texas goes, but the Wolverines should be able to iron out depth or other concerns in this game before Big Ten play begins.
Week four: No. 18 USC
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 65.7 percent
Our take: USC is coming off of an 8-5 season in which its defense could no properly complement an offense run by No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams. The Trojans put a big emphasis on improving their defense this offseason, and are hoping new starting quarterback Miller Moss can build off of a 372-yard, six-touchdown performance against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl.
I would actually view this game as more of a toss-up than 66 percent, but I do think Michigan can benefit from home-field advantage against a team with a few question marks to answer still.
Week five: No. 61 Minnesota
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 84.4 percent
Our take: With an emphasis on strength and conditioning, running the football and defense, Minnesota has run a Michigan-style program in recent years, even if it didn't show in last year's 52-10 win over the Golden Gophers. With Darius Taylor back, Minnesota figures to once again be run heavy. But playing one of the nation's top run defenses on the road, the Golden Gophers figure to be sizable underdogs in Michigan's fifth straight road game to open the season. An 84-percent chance to win feels high against any middling Big Ten team, but is probably accurate when considering the location, and gap between the programs last year.
Week six: No. 31 Washington
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 60.7 percent
Our take: It's rather incredible how many coaches and players that took part in January's national title game won't be around for the rematch in October. Though while Michigan was able to keep its returning roster intact and promote coaches from within, the Huskies also lost players and coaches to Alabama and other programs in the wake of Kalen DeBoer's move to Alabama.
That takes some of the juice out of this contest, but Jedd Fisch and Will Rogers will try to sting Michigan in the Wolverines' first road test of the season. I view this as a close game in Michigan's favor, so 60.7 percent feels apt ahead of the season.
Week eight: No. 62 Illinois
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 79.6 percent
Our take: Technically, no Big Ten road game is a gimme, and Illinois has played above its talent level the last few years under Bret Bielema's physical culture (including a near-upset of Michigan in 2022). But coming off a bye week, in a road atmosphere that isn't known to be adverse, this seems like an opportunity for the Wolverines to kick off the second half of their season with a win. Illinois is coming off a 5-7 season.
Week nine: No. 68 Michigan State
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 86.7 percent
Our take: Under first-year head coach Jonathan Smith, Michigan State is a wild card. Smith by most metrics was a strong hire after finding success at Oregon State, and he brought talented quarterback Aidan Chiles and tight end Jack Velling with him. But a staggering 38 transfer portal departures and a dearth of proven talent at key spots makes the Spartans' season a difficult one to forecast. And coming off a 4-8 season including a 49-0 loss to Michigan, Smith has his work cut out for him in his first season, including a trip to Ann Arbor for the rivalry matchup.
Week 10: No. 2 Oregon
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 34.5 percent
Our take: According to FPI, Oregon is the best team on Michigan's schedule this season, and would be favored by the metric in Ann Arbor if the game were played today. The Ducks are a preseason top-five team, hoping that new quarterback Dillon Gabriel can carry them as far as Bo Nix did last year, and perhaps further.
At this point in the season, we will have seen both Oregon and Michigan host preseason top-five teams, and should have a good sense of where these teams truly stand. For now, the Ducks have more proven stars on offense.
Week 11: No. 77 Indiana
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 83.1 percent
Our take: By the end of this season, Michigan will have played at Indiana more times in the last 10 seasons (six) than anywhere else outside of Ann Arbor. While an interesting fact, it's unlikely to mean a ton in terms of the outcome of this matchup. The Hoosiers brought in a substantial transfer portal haul under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, who is proving himself to be a strong recruiter. Does that bridge the talent gap in his first season in a home clash with Michigan? Having covered a few of these games in Bloomington over the years, it's hard to not pick the team that has won 42 of the last 44 matchups in this series, dating back to 1968.
Week 12: No. 57 Northwestern
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 85.4 percent
Our take: The game before "The Game" is often an interesting, too-close-for-comfort game, even if Michigan has won seven of its last eight such games. In Northwestern, the Wolverines host a team many believe is on the rise, after interim head coach David Braun led the Wildcats from a 1-11 2022 to a 8-5 mark last fall to earn the full-time head-coaching job.
Despite that improved play, FPI is forecasting Michigan to be in control of this game, and cruise into its matchup with the Buckeyes.
Week 13: No. 4 Ohio State
Michigan's chances of winning, per FPI: 25.8 percent
Our take: A chance of winning below 26 percent feels low for any top-15 team, but it's fair to say this is likely Michigan's toughest regular-season test of the year. The Buckeyes, riding a wave of players who opted to play another season over declaring for the NFL Draft, are the preseason pick to win the Big Ten championship, and a common choice to win a national title. That this game is being played in Columbus — in front of a crowd hungry for a win over the Wolverines five years since the Buckeyes' last such win —adds to the challenge.
Michigan is more than a touchdown underdog in this game right now. Then again, being an underdog hasn't deterred the Wolverines in this matchup in the last three years.
Season odds
Current ranking: No. 12 nationally, No. 4 in Big Ten
Odds to win 6-plus games: 92.4 percent
Odds to win Big Ten: 7.3 percent
Odds to make College Football Playoff: 28.5 percent
Odds to make national title game: 4.0 percent
Odds to win national championship: 1.7 percent
Odds to go undefeated all season: 0.7 percent
Projected strength of schedule: 18th
Takeaways
Using the cumulative win probabilities listed above, FPI is projecting Michigan to win 8.2 games. Going game-by-game, the Wolverines are expected to go 9-3, with actually no game with a win probability in the 40-60 percent range. Essentially, the algorithm very much likes Michigan's chances of winning eight or nine games, but doesn't expect much more than that.
Coming off a 40-3 mark the last three seasons, that would be a disappointingyear for Michigan,and one that would put the Wolverines' College Football Playoff hopes in sincere jeopardy. Though it'svery plausible that a 9-3 team or two will make the field, there are only seven at-large bids in play, so Michigan would likely need to pass the eye test in those three losses, and have things break in their favor in conference championship games.
At the same time, if Texas, Oregon and Ohio State all are truly top four teams this season and the Wolverines take care of business against the nine teams it is expected to beat, there's a chance Michigan gets a shot at revenge in the playoffs.
And if this year's Michigan team is anything like the Wolverines' last three teams, a chance to prove people wrong is all the motivation Michigan needs.
